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The National Center for Meteorology forecast shows light to moderate showers commencing early Friday morning in eastern Najran and the southern reaches of the Eastern Province. These conditions are expected to persist into the morning before light rain develops in the southern Eastern Province by early afternoon. Moderate rainfall will then spread to the southwestern coast, affecting Asir, Jazan and parts of the Makkah region later that day, according to the center. By evening the bulk of the precipitation will dissipate, leaving only scattered light showers between western Najran and the southern Eastern Province until early Saturday.
On Saturday afternoon light rain is projected to spread across the southwestern Eastern Province while becoming scattered in northern Najran, the central southern Riyadh region and small areas of the southwestern coast, the National Center for Meteorology reported. Moderate rainfall will develop over Jazan, Asir and Taif in the Makkah region as the afternoon progresses. Light showers will also appear along the border between the Riyadh and Qassim regions. The center’s numerical model indicates that the rain over the Eastern Province, Najran and Riyadh will weaken and scatter later in the day.
Moderate to heavy showers will affect eastern Jazan and southern Asir on Sunday afternoon while lighter rainfall impacts eastern Najran and the southern Eastern Province, according to data from the National Center for Meteorology. Light showers will extend farther north into parts of the Eastern Province and the Riyadh region during the evening. Most of the morning on Sunday is expected to remain dry before the afternoon activity develops. The forecast calls for the rain to disappear completely by early Monday morning.
Light to moderate showers will return to the Eastern Province and the southwestern coast on Monday afternoon, targeting Asir, Jazan and Taif, the center stated. Only light scattered showers will remain along the Eastern Province and Najran border by Monday evening, continuing into early Tuesday. Tuesday is projected to stay mostly dry until the afternoon when light rainfall spreads to the southern Eastern Province, southern Riyadh and southern Najran. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected along the Asir and Jazan border that evening, with lighter showers reaching Al-Baha.
The National Center for Meteorology expects light rainfall across most of Najran persisting until early Wednesday morning, followed by heavier falls along the Asir-Jazan border and into Al-Baha later that morning. The heavier rainfall over the southwestern coast will ease by late afternoon while lighter rain in other areas gradually disappears. Light rainfall will remain scattered across much of the southern Kingdom on Wednesday evening. Heavy rainfall is forecast to briefly return to Asir and Jazan on Thursday afternoon before weakening.
This latest forecast aligns with the National Center for Meteorology’s broader seasonal outlook that anticipates above-normal rainfall across the Kingdom during the August to October period, with precipitation expected to increase progressively and exceed averages in most regions by October. The current active pattern comes as the center has been tracking opportunities for thunderstorms accompanied by active winds over Jazan, Asir and parts of the Eastern Province and Najran. Such conditions have been highlighted in recent NCM updates as likely to continue in the near term. Figures from the center place the expected rainfall increase at 50 to 60 percent above average during the fall season.
