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The National Center for Meteorology forecast that Monday afternoon would bring heavy rainfall along the border between Jazan and Asir with most of western Asir experiencing heavier rain and thunderstorms around Abha. The center’s outputs indicated this activity would spill slightly into Al Baha and the south of Makkah before beginning to lighten and disappear by evening. NCM data drawn from its numerical modeling showed the southwestern provinces as particularly susceptible given their topography and historical weather patterns with the center noting that Asir regularly records among the highest rainfall totals in the kingdom. The center released an animated map to illustrate the expected progression of rainfall activity across the affected areas.
According to the National Center for Meteorology Tuesday afternoon would see the return of rain to the same areas although most locations were set for heavier precipitation while the vicinity of Abha would receive lighter showers. The forecast from the center projected that this rain would lighten and disappear by late afternoon continuing its pattern into the following day. NCM’s assessment relied on the Saudi Numerical Model to project these shifts in intensity across Jazan, Asir, Al Baha and parts of Makkah.
The National Center for Meteorology reported that Wednesday afternoon would feature lighter showers in Abha and the northwestern parts of Asir before the rain spread across the region with heavier falls in the northwest. By evening the center’s map indicated the rain in Asir would intensify slightly and concentrate around Abha and to its south with light showers also expected in Al Baha and south of Makkah. All affected areas would see the precipitation cease later in the evening according to the center’s detailed outputs.
NCM projections for Thursday pointed to light showers in southern Asir late in the afternoon for a short period with no recurrence until Friday afternoon when light rain would scatter from Jazan through to Makkah. The center’s forecast showed these showers lightening and disappearing by evening as the system moved through the southwestern regions. This multi-day outlook formed part of the National Center for Meteorology’s routine monitoring using advanced numerical modeling to inform residents and authorities.
On Saturday afternoon the National Center for Meteorology anticipated slightly heavier rain than the previous day across the same areas and regions with the precipitation beginning to weaken by evening before disappearing completely. The center’s animated map and model outputs provided a comprehensive view of the varying intensities expected through the period in Jazan, Asir, Al Baha and Makkah. NCM as the kingdom’s primary meteorological authority issues such forecasts to support preparedness in areas historically prone to concentrated thunderstorm activity during this season.
