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The National Center for Meteorology has forecast continued thunderstorms across several southern regions of Saudi Arabia from Sunday through Saturday, with rainfall intensities fluctuating from light showers to heavy downpours at different stages of the week. According to the center’s analysis based on the Saudi Numerical Model, initial light rain is expected to develop in the southernmost parts of Asir on Sunday afternoon before conditions clear temporarily. NCM data indicates that moderate rain will return Tuesday afternoon in the south of Asir and northwestern sectors before shifting southward with lighter showers persisting into early Wednesday.
NCM’s outlook shows that by Wednesday afternoon light to moderate rain will cover much of southern Asir reaching Abha and nearby areas while scattered showers could extend into southwestern Riyadh with heavier accumulations forecast for Taif in Makkah province. The forecast from the center anticipates that rain will then move toward Jazan and the Farasan Islands later Wednesday evening continuing until early Thursday morning. According to NCM assessments early Thursday should see clearing followed by a return of rain to southern Asir that intensifies to heavy levels and extends northward to include western Najran and southern Riyadh.
Heavy rainfall is expected to focus on eastern Jazan and southern Asir by Thursday afternoon according to the National Center for Meteorology even as activity in Najran and Riyadh weakens to scattered showers that dissipate by early Friday. NCM figures place light scattered showers across western Najran and much of Jazan including the Farasan Islands for Friday morning before heavy rain develops around Abha and spreads through most of Asir that afternoon. The center’s projection indicates this activity will weaken into scattered light showers around Abha and eastern Jazan by early Friday evening lasting until early Saturday morning.
According to the National Center for Meteorology Saturday afternoon will bring light rain initially to southern Asir and southeastern Jazan before it intensifies and spreads to additional parts of southern Asir and small sections of Najran only to weaken and clear by early evening. The forecast underscores the dynamic nature of these weather systems across the southwestern highlands where orographic lift often enhances precipitation. NCM has stressed the importance of monitoring updates as conditions can evolve rapidly within the seven-day window.
The General Directorate of Civil Defense has urged residents in affected areas to remain vigilant and avoid flood-prone valleys and low-lying roads during periods of heavy rain as outlined in the NCM forecast. Civil defense data from similar past events highlight risks of flash flooding and reduced visibility that accompany such thunderstorms in the Kingdom’s southern provinces. Authorities recommend securing loose objects and refraining from travel through wadis when warnings are active.
Southwestern regions such as Asir Jazan and Al-Baha receive the bulk of Saudi Arabia’s annual rainfall according to long-term records maintained by the National Center for Meteorology with summer months frequently featuring convective thunderstorm activity. A separate NCM assessment of June 2026 weather patterns noted an almost complete absence of dust and sandstorms that month which stood 99 percent below historical averages and marked the lowest level in more than 25 years. The center continues to rely on advanced numerical modeling to provide these detailed regional outlooks that inform both public safety measures and sectoral preparedness across the country.
