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The National Center for Meteorology has issued its latest forecast calling for thunderstorms accompanied by hail and active winds over several regions of Saudi Arabia. Moderate to heavy thundery rain together with hail is anticipated in Jazan, Asir and Al-Baha with the activity set to extend into the highlands of Makkah and Madinah. Active winds capable of stirring dust are additionally expected over central and southern regions including Najran according to the NCM.[[1]](https://saudigazette.com.sa/article/664037/saudi-arabia/thunderstorms-hail-forecast-across-saudi-arabia-as-temperatures-climb-to-46c)
According to the NCM’s city-specific projections Dammam will record the highest temperature at 46 degrees Celsius amid suspended dust. Riyadh is forecast to reach 44 degrees with partly cloudy skies and suspended dust while Buraidah could attain 45 degrees under clear to partly cloudy conditions. Madinah may see 45 degrees with rain thunder and active winds the meteorology center reported.
The NCM outlook further lists Makkah at 42 degrees with rain and thunder Jeddah at 38 degrees with active winds and dust and both Jazan and Najran near 38 and 39 degrees respectively with associated thunder active winds and dust. Highland cities Abha and Al-Baha are projected to reach only 31 degrees amid thundery rain and active winds. Northern and other areas including Tabuk at 41 degrees Hail at 41 degrees Arar at 43 degrees and Sakaka at 44 degrees will generally see partly cloudy skies with active winds in select locations.
A study published in the journal Atmospheric Research identified a robust rise in thunderstorm-favourable environments across Saudi Arabia between 1980 and 2023. The research which drew on resources from the National Center for Meteorology found statistically significant increases in spring summer and autumn with the strongest signals concentrated in Makkah Asir Jizan and Al-Baha provinces. Positive phases of the Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño were cited as factors that amplify such thunderstorm environments in the kingdom.[[2]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169809526004503)
Earlier NCM reports from the first half of August detailed comparable conditions with temperatures climbing to 47 degrees Celsius in some eastern and central areas alongside thunderstorm risks. Those forecasts similarly highlighted hail potential and dust-stirring winds that at times reduced visibility to near zero along coastal routes. The center’s ongoing monitoring underscores the persistence of these late-summer weather patterns across the kingdom.
The National Center for Meteorology continues to update its forecasts using integrated observational and modeling systems to support preparedness across affected provinces. Residents in the southwestern highlands have been among those most frequently exposed to the combined effects of heavy rain hail and gusts in recent seasons according to the center’s records. Such data informs coordination with other government bodies responsible for public safety during periods of convective activity.
