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The National Center for Meteorology has forecast above-average rainfall across most regions of Saudi Arabia during October 2026 according to its latest climate assessment. NCM spokesman Hussein Al-Qahtani said the outlook covers Riyadh, Makkah, Madinah, Asir, Al-Baha, Jazan, Najran, Qassim, Hail, the Eastern Province, Al-Jouf, Tabuk and the Northern Borders Region. Al-Qahtani added that probabilities and amounts of precipitation will vary by area while the center will issue more detailed reports on specific events as they approach.
According to the National Center for Meteorology, October is expected to mark the peak of the autumn rainy season with precipitation ranging from heavy to very heavy and potentially reaching torrential levels in isolated spots. The center’s assessment found that the likelihood of above-average rainfall will continue into November across many of the same regions including Jazan, Asir, Al-Baha, Makkah, Al-Jouf, Hail, Qassim, Riyadh and the Eastern Province as well as parts of Madinah, Tabuk and the Northern Borders. This projection builds directly on the NCM’s earlier three-month forecast released in August that signaled a gradual increase in rainfall chances through the period.
The National Center for Meteorology stated that its autumn outlook aims to support early preparedness and help authorities respond effectively to anticipated weather conditions. Hussein Al-Qahtani noted that the forecast derives from climate indicators tracked by the center and that timing along with geographical distribution will become clearer in subsequent updates. The NCM urged the public to follow its official reports and regular bulletins for the latest information on developing patterns.
Historical data compiled by the National Center for Meteorology places Jazan’s average October rainfall at 20.2 millimeters among monitored stations followed by Makkah at 16.8 millimeters and Taif at 16.1 millimeters. The center has recorded a peak daily October total of 90 millimeters in Jazan in 1997 providing context for the scale of events possible under enhanced conditions. Such records from the NCM illustrate how the current forecast could influence seasonal precipitation totals.
Hussein Al-Qahtani from the National Center for Meteorology emphasized that more granular forecasts will identify precisely affected locations and track their evolution based on the newest meteorological outputs. The center’s assessments have informed similar preparedness measures in past years across western and southern provinces prone to heavy autumn rains. This ongoing climate monitoring by the NCM supplies actionable information for both government planning and public awareness throughout the season.
