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The National Center for Meteorology has outlined expectations for ongoing thunderstorm activity that will bring moderate to heavy rainfall to several regions of the Kingdom in the days ahead. Jazan, Asir, Al-Baha and Makkah Al-Mukarramah face the highest probability of intense activity that could produce torrential downpours accompanied by hail and strong winds stirring dust, according to the center’s latest assessment. Madinah, Hail, Al-Jawf and the Northern Borders will see lighter to moderate rains while fog formation remains possible along coastal sections of Makkah and the Eastern Province.
NCM data places the current active phase within a broader autumn pattern that has already generated significant precipitation in recent weeks. The center’s daily report issued on October 19 detailed the continuation of these conditions with particular emphasis on the southwestern highlands where cumulative rainfall has begun to exceed seasonal norms in some monitoring stations. Officials at the center have urged residents to monitor updates through official channels as the system evolves.
A seasonal outlook released by the National Center for Meteorology in early October projected above-average rainfall for the month across most of the country with probabilities highest in the western, central and southern sectors. The assessment found that precipitation could range from moderate to heavy with isolated areas of very heavy accumulations possible in Makkah, Jazan and the Eastern Province excluding its southern reaches. Such forecasts align with numerical models that incorporate regional atmospheric patterns and sea surface temperatures influencing moisture influx from the Red Sea and Arabian Gulf.
The center’s semi-quarterly climate document further indicated that November is likely to sustain elevated rain chances before a gradual transition toward December. This extended outlook incorporates data from the Saudi numerical weather prediction system which integrates satellite observations, radar networks and ground stations maintained across the Kingdom. NCM has expanded its early warning infrastructure in recent years to deliver more precise regional alerts that help authorities manage potential disruptions to transportation and daily activities.
Recent NCM bulletins have highlighted the risk of reduced visibility and surface water accumulation in low-lying areas during peak thunderstorm periods. The center’s monitoring network recorded varying rainfall totals over the preceding 24 hours with higher concentrations in the southwestern provinces where some stations measured accumulations sufficient to trigger localized runoff. Public updates from the center continue to stress the importance of heeding weather alerts distributed through its mobile application and official platforms.
Integration of real-time data has allowed the National Center for Meteorology to refine its short-term projections as the weather system moves across the Arabian Peninsula. The forecast through October 28 incorporates evolving inputs from both domestic observation networks and international meteorological exchanges that enhance predictive accuracy for the region. NCM operates as the primary authority for such assessments and maintains coordination with civil defense and transportation entities to mitigate impacts from these recurrent autumn weather episodes.
