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The National Center for Meteorology has forecast moderate to heavy thunderstorms across parts of Jazan, Asir, Al-Baha, Makkah and Madinah as a new weather system takes hold this week. According to the center’s assessment, these conditions carry the potential for flash floods in affected areas along with hail showers and gusty winds that could stir up dust and sand, reducing visibility. The National Center for Meteorology noted that the disturbances are expected to intensify over several days, prompting warnings for residents in vulnerable zones to monitor updates closely. Light to moderate rainfall is also anticipated in portions of Najran, with the center indicating that the overall pattern reflects ongoing atmospheric instability across the kingdom.
In the Jazan region, the National Center for Meteorology expects moderate to heavy rain in governorates including Harub, Al-Rayth, Al-Dayer, Fayfa and Baysh among others, with similar intensity projected for parts of Asir such as Abha, Khamis Mushait, Al-Namas and Mahayil Asir. The center reported that Al-Baha areas including Baljurashi, Al-Mandaq and Al-Aqiq face comparable risks, where accumulated precipitation could trigger sudden flooding in low-lying terrain. These forecasts, drawn from the center’s latest models, highlight the need for caution in highland and valley locations prone to rapid water runoff. The assessment aligns with patterns observed in recent weeks, the National Center for Meteorology indicated.
Makkah region governorates such as Taif, Adham and Al-Ardiyat are set to experience moderate to heavy thunderstorms according to the National Center for Meteorology, while light to moderate rain is likely in Madinah localities including Al-Mahd and Wadi Al-Fara. The center’s data also points to possible fog formation overnight and during early morning hours along coastal stretches of Makkah, Madinah and the Eastern Province, which could further impact visibility for drivers. Such overlapping hazards have featured in multiple National Center for Meteorology bulletins issued throughout September and into October. The center’s early warning platform detailed these elements in alerts released late on September 30.
Surface wind patterns detailed by the National Center for Meteorology show northwesterly to northerly flows over the Red Sea at speeds of 20 to 42 kilometers per hour, shifting to westerly and northwesterly ranges during the afternoon. In the Arabian Gulf, winds will vary from southeasterly to southwesterly at 10 to 25 kilometers per hour before turning northerly to northeasterly. The center reported that thunderstorm activity may produce gusts exceeding 50 kilometers per hour in localized spots, adding to the overall instability. These wind regimes form an integral part of the broader forecast issued by the National Center for Meteorology.
Wave heights in the Red Sea are projected to range from half a meter to one and a half meters by the National Center for Meteorology, with potential spikes beyond two meters during thunderstorm passages. The center described sea conditions as slight to moderate, turning rough at times in the affected waters. In contrast, the Arabian Gulf is expected to see waves between half a meter and one meter under generally slight conditions. Such maritime details supplement the center’s land-based warnings for coastal communities.
Separate temperature projections from the National Center for Meteorology place daytime highs at 42 degrees Celsius in cities including Riyadh, Madinah, Dammam and Buraidah, with Makkah reaching 41 degrees. Lower readings are anticipated in elevated areas, such as 29 degrees in Al-Baha and 30 degrees in Abha. The center’s combined forecasts for weather, wind and heat underscore the varied impacts across different Saudi regions this week. These figures derive from the same National Center for Meteorology models underpinning the precipitation and flood alerts.
