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The National Center for Meteorology reported that opportunities for moderate to heavy thunderstorms accompanied by showers of hail persist on the heights of Jazan, Asir, Al-Baha and Makkah regions. Its daily weather status update issued on August 15 indicated that the conditions form part of a larger pattern expected to influence western Saudi Arabia through the weekend. The center also noted ongoing active winds causing dust and reduced visibility in Tabuk, Najran and coastal sections of Madinah and Makkah extending to Jazan.
According to the National Center for Meteorology’s numerical model outputs, light to moderate rain is likely to develop in southern Asir, around Abha and eastern Jazan starting early in the forecast period. This activity is projected to shift to lighter rain over western Asir and small areas on Riyadh’s western borders later that evening. The center’s assessment shows no substantial precipitation until late Monday afternoon when brief light showers could appear in western Asir.
NCM data further projects light rain in limited zones of southern Asir and southern Makkah by Tuesday. Very light rain may affect small parts of the southeastern Eastern Province, southern Najran, southern Makkah and adjacent areas on Wednesday according to the center. Conditions are set to pick up on Thursday with scattered light rain in Asir before intensifying to heavier falls in eastern Jazan and western Asir later that day.
The forecast from the National Center for Meteorology anticipates the rain weakening and expanding northward Thursday evening to cover Al-Baha, southern Makkah, northwest Riyadh and southeast Madinah into early Friday. Most of the activity is expected to subside by Friday with only light amounts remaining along the border between the Eastern Province and Najran NCM figures show. Late Friday afternoon heavier rain is predicted along the Asir-Jazan border and across most of Al-Baha before moving north toward Makkah and weakening around Taif.
By Saturday the National Center for Meteorology expects scattered light to moderate rain to affect the entire Asir-Jazan border and western Al-Baha with intensification in those zones. Lighter precipitation could occur along the Madinah-Makkah border at times the center stated. All rain activity is forecast to dissipate by late Saturday evening into early Sunday morning.
This pattern aligns with the National Center for Meteorology’s earlier seasonal outlook for above-normal temperatures from August to October coupled with increasingly widespread rainfall toward the period’s close. Saudi civil defense authorities have urged residents in vulnerable areas such as Jazan and Asir to exercise caution amid the threat of flash floods from the anticipated heavy downpours. The center’s warnings highlight the need for awareness as similar events in past seasons have impacted highland communities.
