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The National Center for Meteorology released its latest three-month seasonal outlook covering the remainder of 2026, projecting a progressive rise in rainfall that will surpass historical averages across most of the Kingdom by October while temperatures stay elevated above normal levels. This forecast arrives as Saudi Arabia continues to navigate variable climate patterns that influence everything from water resource management to agricultural planning. The center based its assessment on detailed modeling of current atmospheric conditions and historical trends, urging residents and authorities alike to stay informed through its regular bulletins.
According to the National Center for Meteorology, August is expected to bring below-average rainfall to Jazan, Al-Baha and portions of Najran, Asir, Makkah, Madinah, Tabuk, Riyadh and the Eastern Province. Other areas should see near-normal precipitation during the month. The mixed signals for late summer could affect soil moisture levels particularly in the southwestern highlands where deficits may prove more pronounced.
The National Center for Meteorology anticipates September to deliver above-average rains in Tabuk, Madinah, Al-Baha and segments of Asir, Makkah, Qassim, Hail, Al-Jouf and the Northern Borders Region. Remaining parts of the country are likely to experience precipitation close to long-term averages. Such regional contrasts illustrate the complex topography and atmospheric influences that shape the Kingdom’s weather systems from month to month.
October stands out in the National Center for Meteorology outlook with above-average rainfall forecast for the bulk of Saudi Arabia although the Eastern Province and Najran may see amounts nearer to seasonal norms. This anticipated increase could bolster groundwater reserves in arid zones yet also heighten risks of localized flooding in low-lying or urban areas. The projection forms the centerpiece of the autumn forecast and aligns with the center’s call for vigilance in the coming weeks.
Temperatures are projected to run hotter than average throughout the period according to National Center for Meteorology data, with anomalies reaching as high as 2.5 degrees Celsius in targeted provinces. Parts of Al-Baha, Asir and Makkah face the largest departures in August while September could see up to 2 degrees Celsius above normal in Jazan, Madinah, Tabuk, Al-Jouf, Hail, Qassim, the Northern Borders Region and scattered areas of other provinces. October maintains the warmer pattern with similar elevations possible in Najran, Asir, Al-Baha, Makkah, Riyadh and the Eastern Province.
A 2020 analysis by Mansour Almazroui published in the journal Atmosphere found that Saudi Arabia recorded a mean annual rainfall of 92.5 millimeters between 1978 and 2019 with an overall decreasing trend of 5.89 millimeters per decade although the frequency of extreme events has risen at many monitoring stations. The World Bank climate knowledge portal assessment of historical records from 1991 to 2020 similarly documents notable variability across regions alongside long-term warming. These broader patterns underscore why precise seasonal forecasts from the National Center for Meteorology have become essential tools for policymakers and economic sectors dependent on weather stability.
The National Center for Meteorology has advised the public to consult its ongoing updates for refinements to the outlook as new data emerges. Its release contained no individual attributions yet stressed the value of preparedness across affected communities. Integration of such forecasts into national strategies could help mitigate impacts on infrastructure, farming and public health amid the projected warmer and wetter conditions.
