Analysts Forecast Saudi Economy to Expand 6.1 Percent in 2027 After Modest Gains This Year

A Bloomberg poll of 15 economists from leading international banks conducted between September 11 and 16 indicated that Saudi Arabia’s gross domestic product is forecast to rise by an average of 0.6 percent in 2026 before accelerating markedly the following year. The median expectation for 2027 stands at 6.1 percent, with individual forecasts ranging widely amid ongoing regional tensions that have affected energy infrastructure. The survey coincided with an attack on the East-West pipeline and increased Houthi militia activities targeting the Kingdom, factors that have prompted analysts to temper near-term outlooks while anticipating a robust rebound once stability returns.
The International Monetary Fund in its July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update projected Saudi growth at 1.7 percent for 2026 and 5.5 percent for 2027, citing the impact of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and expectations of gradual normalization by early 2027. IMF figures show non-oil GDP growth easing to 2.6 percent next year before picking up to 4.5 percent in 2027 as domestic demand and investment in megaprojects gain momentum. The fund highlighted the Kingdom’s resilience supported by diversified export routes that have limited the effects of regional conflict.
Saudi Vision 2030 reforms continue to drive economic diversification with non-oil sectors playing a larger role in sustaining growth through structural changes and government-led initiatives. Public investment via the Public Investment Fund has bolstered sectors including tourism, entertainment and technology helping to reduce reliance on hydrocarbon revenues. According to earlier IMF assessments these efforts positioned the Kingdom to achieve 4.6 percent overall growth in 2025 despite global headwinds.
Fiscal balances are expected to improve as higher oil revenues narrow deficits with the IMF forecasting the central government fiscal gap at 3.1 percent of GDP in 2027 compared with 5.8 percent in 2025. Public debt is projected to remain manageable at around 34.4 percent of GDP by the end of the forecast period. The current account balance is seen moving toward a small deficit of 0.8 percent as imports and investment outflows adjust.
Analysts participating in the Bloomberg survey included representatives from Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley whose views reflect a consensus on stronger performance in 2027 driven by recovery in oil production and sustained private consumption. The wide range of 2026 estimates from a 2.5 percent contraction to 3 percent growth underscores uncertainty tied to geopolitical developments. Reuters polls have similarly pointed to approximately 6 percent growth in 2027 aligning closely with the Bloomberg median.
The Kingdom’s economy expanded by an estimated 2.65 percent in 2024 before accelerating in 2025 as OPEC+ cuts were phased out according to IMF data. Medium-term prospects remain anchored in major international events and continued implementation of capital projects under Vision 2030. Economists expect these factors to support a return to above-trend growth once regional maritime traffic stabilizes.