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The National Center for Meteorology issued its forecast on September 13, 2026, predicting moderate to heavy thunderstorms across several regions of Saudi Arabia that could lead to flash flooding. According to the NCM, the most intense activity will concentrate in Jazan, Asir, Al-Baha, Makkah and Madinah where rainfall could exceed 10 millimeters per hour in places. The center also noted the possibility of hail, lightning and strong winds exceeding 60 kilometers per hour that may reduce visibility through dust and sand.
Specific governorates in Jazan including Al-Rayth, Harub, Al-Dayer and Sabya face elevated risks of heavy downpours from Sunday through midweek, the National Center for Meteorology detailed in its report. In Asir, locations such as Abha, Khamis Mushait, Ahad Rafidah and Al-Namas are expected to experience similar conditions with the potential for flash floods in valleys and low-lying areas. The NCM data places the highest rainfall accumulations in the southwestern highlands where terrain can amplify storm intensity.
The General Directorate of Civil Defense has issued urgent calls for caution in response to the NCM forecast, advising the public to avoid valleys, flood channels and low ground during the stormy period. The directorate reminded residents that official updates will be available through multiple platforms including the NCM’s Anwaa application. Its guidance includes heeding all color-coded warnings from yellow for lighter rain to red for the most severe threats involving flash floods.
Surface wind patterns detailed by the National Center for Meteorology indicate northwesterly flows over the Red Sea that could reach 50 kilometers per hour near Bab el-Mandeb with associated rough seas during thunderstorms. In contrast, the Arabian Gulf will see southeasterly winds generally below 35 kilometers per hour with calmer wave conditions overall. These marine forecasts accompany the land-based thunderstorm predictions and extend the weather alerts to coastal communities.
Additional light to moderate rain is forecast for parts of Najran, the Eastern Province and Northern Borders according to the latest NCM assessment. The meteorology center has maintained continuous monitoring of the developing weather system. Authorities continue to coordinate between the NCM and civil defense to ensure timely updates reach the population in at-risk zones.
