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The National Center for Meteorology issued its latest assessment on July 26, 2026, indicating a growing likelihood that El Niño will develop and continue through the end of 2026 into early 2027 with associated warmer temperatures and altered rainfall across Saudi Arabia. According to the center, the country currently remains in a neutral phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, with the Niño 3.4 index standing at plus 0.39 degrees Celsius as of July 5. The NCM forecast places a high probability on the index surpassing plus 0.8 degrees Celsius and averaging around 1.25 degrees Celsius, conditions that could qualify the event as a strong El Niño.
Projections detailed in the center’s report show the Niño 3.4 anomaly climbing from 1.1 degrees Celsius in May to 2.8 degrees Celsius by October, a trajectory that aligns closely with international outlooks. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center reported a 97 percent probability that El Niño will persist through early spring 2027, lending further weight to the regional analysis. Such developments typically amplify weather extremes, and the NCM assessment underscores the need for vigilance in climate-sensitive sectors.
Western Saudi Arabia faces an elevated chance of increased rainfall during the autumn months, which the National Center for Meteorology linked to a higher risk of flash flooding in affected zones. Central parts of the Kingdom are expected to see precipitation during the 2026-2027 winter season under the same forecast. Southwestern highlands, meanwhile, are projected to receive above-average rainfall in the subsequent spring period, completing a pattern of seasonally varied impacts.
Above-average temperatures will predominate across much of the year, the center stated, with both daytime and nighttime readings climbing above historical norms. Heatwaves are anticipated to become more frequent and intense during the summer and autumn, adding pressure to energy demand and public health preparedness. Winters will likely prove warmer than usual with a correspondingly lower probability of extreme cold events, according to the NCM data.
The warning builds on a June 2026 report from the Regional Center for Climate Change at the National Center for Meteorology that first flagged the transition from neutral conditions based on May observations. That earlier document, which forecasted gradual warming of sea surface temperatures, has since been updated with July measurements to refine probabilities for the Kingdom. Collaboration between the NCM and the Climate Change Center produced the integrated assessment now guiding public advisories.
Broader global monitoring reinforces these findings, as the World Meteorological Organization has highlighted how a strengthening El Niño could combine with long-term climate trends to elevate the odds of record global heat in 2027. Models from multiple agencies continue to track atmospheric and oceanic coupling across the Pacific that supports high confidence in the event’s duration. Saudi authorities have used the NCM projections to inform contingency planning for weather-related disruptions in vulnerable communities.
