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The National Center for Meteorology detailed a red alert for heavy rain covering the entire Adam governorate specific municipalities in Al Lith including Bny Yazed Jaddam and Yalamlam and the full Maysan governorate. This warning extended from 12:00 on Tuesday until 01:00 on Wednesday according to the center’s early warning system. Expected effects included active winds lack of horizontal visibility hail torrential rains and thunder strikes the National Center for Meteorology reported in its update issued on October 13. The center modified the alert period on Tuesday to account for the latest observations of the advancing weather system.
According to the National Center for Meteorology moderate to heavy thunderstorms with risks of flash floods hail and dust-raising winds threatened parts of Jazan Asir Al-Baha Makkah Madinah Hail Tabuk Al-Jouf and the Northern Borders during the period. Light to moderate rain appeared likely across southern Riyadh southern sections of the Eastern Province and parts of Najran the center’s assessment found. Coastal zones in Tabuk Madinah Makkah and the Eastern Province faced potential fog in night and early morning hours while daytime highs reached 41 degrees Celsius in Dammam and 40 degrees in both Makkah and Madinah.
The National Center for Meteorology maintained additional red alerts for Bahrah Al Jumum Al Kamil Al Qunfudhah and Makkah Al Mukarramah itself with similar warnings extending into Al-Baha and Asir regions. These overlapped in timeframe with the initial Makkah alert reflecting a broad weather disturbance across western Saudi Arabia. The center continued releasing updates through its platform as conditions developed on October 14 and 15.
A study published in Discover Sustainability documented 139 heavy to extremely heavy rainfall days in the Makkah region between 1985 and 2023 with rainfall increasing at rates of 35.37 mm per decade in Makkah during the second half of the period. The study published in 2025 noted peaks in such events during November and April across stations in Jeddah Makkah and Taif. Automatic weather station records cited in the study showed daily maxima such as 109 mm at Makkah Al Jamoum in November 2020.
A 2009 study in the Arabian Journal of Geosciences examined hydrologic behavior in Makkah-area basins including Na’man Fatimah and Usfan where high-intensity rains in arid terrain frequently generate flash floods. The study applied Gumbel and log-Pearson Type III distributions to rainfall data from eight stations to estimate flood probabilities for varying return periods. It highlighted how rainfall distribution within wadis influences flood responses in the region.
The National Center for Meteorology recorded 17.4 mm of rain at Al-Shara’i in Makkah over a 24-hour period in early October 2026 according to its precipitation report released on October 9. This amount exceeded measurements at other sites in Asir Tabuk Al-Jouf and the Northern Borders during the same interval. The center’s ongoing monitoring has captured multiple such events in 2026 consistent with the upward trend in heavy rainfall identified in longer-term analyses.
