ع
The National Center for Meteorology issued its latest forecast on Tuesday detailing expected moderate to heavy thunderstorms accompanied by hail across several southwestern regions of the kingdom on Wednesday. Parts of Jazan, Asir, Al-Baha and Makkah will see these conditions along with the potential for flash floods according to the center. Gusty winds capable of stirring dust are also anticipated in those areas as well as in portions of the Eastern Province, Riyadh and Madinah regions the forecast indicated.
Over the Red Sea northwesterly to westerly winds are set to blow across northern and central sections while southwesterly to northwesterly flows will dominate the south at 15 to 50 kilometers per hour the National Center for Meteorology reported. Wave heights are projected between half a meter and more than two meters resulting in sea states that vary from calm to choppy. In the Arabian Gulf wind patterns will shift from northwesterly and northeasterly to southeasterly and southwesterly during the evening with comparable wave conditions the center’s bulletin showed.
A study published in the journal Discover Sustainability in 2025 that relied on National Center for Meteorology observations from 1985 through 2023 documented an increase in both the frequency and intensity of heavy to extreme rainfall events in the Makkah region. This trend has elevated the risk of flash flooding in western Saudi Arabia where topography contributes to rapid runoff during downpours. The analysis highlighted how such changes necessitate robust early warning systems to mitigate impacts on local communities and infrastructure.
The National Center for Meteorology maintains a dedicated flash flood forecasting system that was detailed in a 2024 paper appearing in the journal Water. That system draws on multiple meteorological inputs to generate timely alerts for at-risk areas throughout the country. Development of the platform reflects ongoing efforts to address recurrent flooding challenges in the kingdom according to the researchers involved.
Past episodes of heavy rainfall have prompted the General Directorate of Civil Defense to mobilize resources for rescues and public safety measures in affected regions. In November 2022 for instance severe flash flooding in western Saudi Arabia including Jeddah led to dozens of high-water interventions as reported by flood monitoring services. Similar events in earlier years such as 2019 in the Madinah region resulted in multiple rescues and highlighted the persistent hazards posed by intense seasonal rains.
The forecast also encompasses detailed wind and wave predictions for maritime areas that could influence shipping and coastal activities the National Center for Meteorology advised. Authorities typically recommend that residents in threatened zones monitor updates closely and avoid flood-prone valleys during stormy periods. Such advisories have proven critical in reducing casualties during previous comparable weather systems.
