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The National Center for Meteorology released its seasonal climate outlook on July 28 detailing expectations for warmer than normal conditions across the majority of Saudi Arabia from August through October. Surface temperatures are projected to exceed averages with probabilities ranging from 60 to 80 percent overall while August carries a 55 to 80 percent likelihood, September 65 to 80 percent and October 40 to 80 percent according to the center’s assessment. The largest departures are anticipated in western Al-Baha, western Asir and southwestern Makkah where temperatures could run 2 degrees Celsius above the historical mean during August.
August remains the kingdom’s hottest month on record with the highest average maximum and minimum temperatures before a gradual easing through September and October the center’s long-term data shows. This seasonal pattern aligns with the forecast that emphasizes sustained above-normal readings through the period. The outlook draws directly from the National Center for Meteorology’s analysis of historical climate records and current indicators.
Record high temperatures include 51 degrees Celsius registered in Qaisumah on Aug. 19 1998 and again in Dammam during 2021 for the month of August according to National Center for Meteorology figures. September extremes have reached 49.4 degrees Celsius in both Makkah in 1988 and Rafha in 2019 while Rafha also recorded 48.4 degrees Celsius in October 2019 the center documented. Such historical benchmarks provide context for the current three-month projection.
Rainfall is expected to fall below normal across Jazan, Al-Baha and western southern as well as central regions in August with probabilities placed between 45 and 60 percent the National Center for Meteorology outlook stated. September should see above-normal precipitation in Tabuk, Madinah, Al-Baha and northern and western areas at 45 to 70 percent likelihood while most of the kingdom anticipates wetter than average conditions in October with probabilities from 40 to 80 percent. The center cautioned that its long-range models may not capture isolated heavy rainfall events and urged reliance on short-term forecasts together with early warning systems.
Positive wind speed anomalies reaching as high as 2.4 meters per second are projected over south-central and eastern sections of the country particularly during October according to the meteorological assessment. The forecast coincides with separate evaluations by the National Center for Meteorology and the Climate Change Center that pointed to a growing chance of El Niño development persisting into 2027 and influencing temperature and rainfall distributions. These linked phenomena form part of the broader analytical framework used in the July 28 release.
Historical average rainfall reaches its peak for August in Jazan at 32.3 millimeters followed by Khamis Mushait at 29.5 millimeters and Abha at 25.9 millimeters the center’s records indicate. October averages are highest again in Jazan at 20.2 millimeters with Makkah at 16.8 millimeters and Taif at 16.1 millimeters according to the same dataset. The National Center for Meteorology continues to monitor evolving conditions and will update forecasts as new data emerges.
