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The National Center for Meteorology has forecast the continuation of heavy rainfall accompanied by hail and the risk of flash floods in parts of Saudi Arabia from September 17 through Tuesday. According to the center’s daily weather report, moderate to heavy rain will affect numerous governorates in Jazan including Al-Aridah, Sabya, Abu Arish, Al-Darb, Al-Harth, Al-Dayer, Al-Raith, Al-Tuwal, Damad, Fayfa, Harub and Samtah. The NCM assessment found that Jazan city and Farasan would receive moderate rain with potential for heavy intensity on Sunday and Monday while the system is expected to generate surface runoff in susceptible areas.
Moderate to heavy rainfall is also projected for the Asir region in districts such as Abha, Khamis Mushait, Ahad Rafidah, Sarat Abidah, Dhahran Al-Janub, Al-Harajah, Al-Namas, Tanomah, Bisha, Balqarn, Al-Majardah, Rijal Almaa and Mahayil the center reported. Al-Baha and surrounding locations including Baljurashi, Al-Mandaq, Al-Qura and Al-Aqiq face comparable moderate to heavy rain on some days extending into Monday and Tuesday according to NCM data. The meteorology center additionally placed light to moderate rain in parts of the Makkah region covering Taif, Maysan, Adham, Al-Ardiyat, Al-Qunfudhah, Al-Lith and Al-Jumum.
Light to moderate precipitation is expected in the Madinah region at Wadi Al-Fara and Al-Mahd while Najran, Badr Al-Janub, Thar, Hubuna, Khubash, Yadamah and Sharurah in the Najran region will see similar levels the NCM bulletin indicated. Moderate rainfall may be accompanied by strong winds exceeding 50 kilometers per hour with heavy rainfall bringing winds over 60 kilometers per hour according to the center. NCM figures show that these conditions could lead to elevated waves along the Red Sea coast reaching more than two meters in areas of thunderstorm activity.
Through its early warning system the National Center for Meteorology has issued multiple red alerts for heavy rain in Jazan locations such as Ad Darb, Jazan, Abu Arish and Al-Dayer as well as in Asir districts including Abha and surrounding areas. Orange alerts for moderate rains cover parts of the Madinah region the authority stated in updates published on September 17. The center’s 10-day outlook supports the persistence of this unstable weather pattern across the affected provinces.
The current forecast aligns with the National Center for Meteorology’s climatic predictions for rainfall above average levels across most of the kingdom during October. NCM spokespeople noted in a September 17 statement that the wetter conditions are expected to extend through the following month providing broader precipitation benefits. The meteorology center continues to monitor developments and release periodic updates on the evolving system.
Red alerts from the National Center for Meteorology highlight the need for awareness in southwestern areas where terrain can accelerate water flow during intense rain events. The center’s report from September 17 detailed the potential for reduced visibility due to associated dust in some eastern and northern sectors although the primary focus remains on the western and southern rainfall zones. Additional NCM observations indicate that fog formation is possible along coastal sections of the Red Sea and Arabian Gulf during overnight hours.
