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The National Center for Meteorology has outlined a multi-day outlook based on its Saudi Numerical Model that shows thundery rain persisting across southwestern parts of the kingdom from Sunday through Saturday. Light to moderate rain is expected in southern Jazan and Asir late Sunday evening with no significant overnight activity anticipated in the initial period. The center’s data indicates light showers near Najran on Monday morning followed by further light rain in southern Najran early Tuesday. Moderate rain will then develop in Taif, Makkah and northwestern Asir Tuesday evening according to the NCM assessment.
According to the National Center for Meteorology the pattern shifts to moderate rain in northwestern Asir combined with light rain in southern Jazan on Wednesday before conditions turn mostly dry on Thursday. Light rain is forecast to return to southern Najran Thursday evening as the system begins to redevelop. The NCM model projects moderate to heavy rain across the southwest including Jazan, Asir and Makkah on Friday and Saturday afternoons before the showers lighten and fade by evening.
The National Center for Meteorology has simultaneously issued active early warnings for the same regions with red alerts in place for heavy rain in multiple Jazan governorates such as Abu Arish, Ahad Al Masarihah, Al Aridah, Ad Dair and Ad Darb on Sunday. Orange level alerts cover moderate rains in parts of Asir including Al Farshah while yellow alerts signal light rain in sections of Jazan, Asir and Al Bahah. These warnings align with the numerical model projections and were last updated by the center on August 2, 2026.
NCM figures from its early warning platform place the current alerts as part of ongoing monitoring that has covered rain events of varying severity in recent weeks across the southwest. The center’s platform lists 11 red, 15 orange and 14 yellow alerts active on Sunday encompassing rain, dust and heat conditions in affected governorates. Public updates from the NCM emphasize the importance of checking official channels as conditions evolve through the week.
In a broader seasonal assessment the National Center for Meteorology has projected warmer than normal temperatures across Saudi Arabia from August through October with above average rainfall expected to develop starting in September. The outlook indicates widespread heavier rains by October in several regions according to NCM data shared through official channels. Such patterns build on recent activity that has already triggered multiple warnings in Jazan, Asir and Makkah this summer.
The National Center for Meteorology maintains its early warning system to deliver timely notifications on storms, rain and related hazards with residents urged to follow developments closely. The center’s numerical models provide the foundation for these multi-day forecasts that help authorities and the public prepare for potential impacts. Updates continue to be issued as new model runs become available through the end of the week.
